24-25

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Wed Mar 19, 2025

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Snowfall from last Thursday to Monday:</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<ul>
<li><span><span><span><span><span><span>West Yellowstone - 37” snow/2.9” water</span></span></span></span></span></span></li>
<li><span><span><span><span><span><span>Island Park - 46” snow/4.8” water</span></span></span></span></span></span></li>
<li><span><span><span><span><span><span>Cooke City - 31” snow/2.9” water</span></span></span></span></span></span></li>
</ul>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>This snow was accompanied by strong winds from the west and southwest peaking Sunday night with gusts 65-100 mph. Yesterday winds blew from the north..</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><strong><span><span>Wind slabs</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span> or possibly deeper </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span>persistent slab avalanches</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span> are likely on wind loaded slopes that can easily have double or triple the loading compared to non-wind loaded slopes as my partners and I found </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/34670"><span><span><span><span><span><… near Mt. Jefferson</span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>. Dave spotted many wind slab avalanches </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/34657"><span><span><span><span><span><… Lionhead on Monday</span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Avalanches are much less likely and the riding conditions will be better on slopes sheltered from the wind where the new snow is well bonded to itself. However, so much new snow has way of exposing weakness in the snowpack (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/34599"><span><span><span><span><span><… avalanche in the Taylor Fork</span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span> is a good example). There are some slopes lurking out there mostly near West Yellowstone and the southern Gallatin and Madison Ranges where the snowpack is relatively shallow and weaker (slopes above Trapper Creek near Hebgen Lake come to mind).&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Today human triggered avalanches are likely to happen on wind loaded slopes where the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE. The avalanche danger on non-wind loaded slopes is MODERATE but don’t let your guard down.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>The Bridger Range received up to 15 inches of snow Sunday and Monday. Near Big Sky and Hyalite Canyon 14-24 inches of snow has fallen since late last week. Winds from both the south and the north have drifted that snow and formed many </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span>wind slabs</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>As Ian and his partner found </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/34666"><span><span><span><span><span><… near the Throne</span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>, safe travel simply required avoiding recent drifting and riding slopes unaffected by the wind. A group further north </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/34665"><span><span><span><span><span><… Frazier basin</span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span> found wind slabs 1-1.5’ deep that could avalanche. These wind slabs should be gaining strength today, but I’d still avoid them.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><strong><span><span>Loose wet avalanches </span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>will happen predictably today as strong spring sunshine quickly warms sunny slopes which will become wet. Most wet avalanche activity usually happens the first time dry powder heats up from sunshine. The greatest threat from loose wet avalanches isn’t necessarily triggering one, but having one rumble down onto you from above. Go to shady slopes without recent drifting for the best snow and riding quality.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Today the avalanche danger is MODERATE with heightened avalanche conditions on wind-loaded slopes and sunny slopes where the snow becomes wet.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

Island Park

Date
Activity
Snowmobiling

In the last five days, this area has received snowfall containing 4.5-5.3 inches of water which has settled to about 3 feet of new snow. Winds last sunday night from the southwest reached speeds up to 80 mph before easing, but then they blew from the north today.

We saw a handful of avalanches above treeline terrain that seemed to be wind slabs. However wind and snow had obscured them and I suspect there had been a lot more. 

No cracking in the new snow and one possible collapse. Interestingly - My stability test scores had actually improved since Friday when there was less new snow. They broke and propagated just under a crust under the new snow. ECTP12's on Friday. ECTN & ECTP25 today. The reason is that they have been breaking on old, broken snowflakes....not facets.

Key points

  • The new snow seemed mostly stable on sheltered slopes
  • Wind loading is the main issue.
  • With this kind of loading, it often finds weaknesses in the snowpack. I don't expect any moster slides, but also wouldn't be surprised to hear of one being triggered if tomorrow were a busy weekend day with lots of people out
  • Avoid alpine terrain above treeline where winds have drifted lots of snow. Avoid hanging out in runout zones of big paths

 

Region
Island Park
Location (from list)
CENTENNIAL RANGE
Observer Name
Staples

The snow ranger crew was riding around the Bridgers today and we spotted this slide in the bowl to the south of Hardscrabble peak.  It looked fairly recent (last 2 days) but a little hard to tell due to the new snow since yesterday and blowing snow today.  Photo: USFS Snow Rangers

 

Bridger Range, 2025-03-18

Cracking in wind drifted snow

Date
Activity
Skiing

Toured into Frazier basin today. Saw cracking in wind drifted snow near a ridge top at 8500’. The cracks were about 15 ft across. The drifted snow was about 1-1.5ft thick and still pretty soft. New snow depths varied, some areas were completely scoured. 

Region
Bridger Range
Location (from list)
Frazier Basin
Observer Name
Jay Alford