24-25

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Wed Jan 8, 2025

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p><span><span><span><strong><span><span>Persistent slab avalanches </span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>2-4 ft deep remain the main concern and reports of avalanches and collapsing continue to trickle in (scroll through the</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/weather/wx-avalanche-log"><span><span><span…; weather &amp; avalanche log</span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>). There hasn’t been a widespread avalanche cycle, but snowfall on 12 of the last 13 days has kept the snowpack somewhere near its breaking point.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><strong><span><span>The reason</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span> for these avalanches is a layer of weak facets from dry weather in early December. Some surface hoar was buried as well, mostly near Cooke City. I’m hopeful that recent snowfall is helping to heal this layer, but it is still producing avalanches so I’m not ready to trust it.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span><u>There’s a lot of fresh powder for winds to move today.</u> </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span>Wind slab avalanches</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span> on the downwind side of ridges and gullies will become more likely to trigger. A more serious problem will be the </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span>increased likelihood of persistent slab avalanches</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span> happening on these wind-loaded slopes.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Today the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE. I’m unsure of the exact likelihood of triggering an avalanche on any given slope, but I’m sure that safe travel requires cautious route finding and conservative decision making.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><strong><span><span>Avoid slopes being loaded by today’s winds.</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span> </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><u><span><span>IF you choose</span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span> to enter the peripheries of avalanche terrain, think about (1) where an avalanche would take you, (2) what the consequences would be, and (3) if your partners are watching from a safe location with the gear and training to dig you out quickly.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>The Bridger Range is <strong>loaded with fresh powder</strong> (44 inches over the last week - the old news). Increased downhill winds moved some snow yesterday, and <strong>increased winds today</strong> will move even more snow (the new news). A good heads up has been several recent wind slabs including one on </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://mtavalanche.com/node/33381"><span><span><span><span><span><u><s… on South Saddle Peak</span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>. This avalanche ran 1500 vertical feet, broke 6 inch diameter trees, and piled debris 20 feet deep.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><strong><span><span>Wind slab avalanches</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span> are the primary problem today. <u>Winds will continue moving snow</u> and human triggered avalanches will be likely. There haven’t been any reports of persistent slab avalanches breaking deeper in the snowpack, but everything has a breaking point and slopes with heavy wind loading could reach that point.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>With snow available for transport, more falling this afternoon, and increased winds, the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE. Seek out slopes without wind-drifted snow which may become harder to find depending on what winds do today.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

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Small avalanches along Carrot Basin Headwall in Taylor Fork

Taylor Fork
Southern Madison
Code
SS-R1-D1.5-O
Elevation
8500
Aspect
E
Latitude
45.06070
Longitude
-111.27200
Notes

We did note two small avalanches along the Carrot Basin headwall from sometime in the last two days that broke on weak snow near the ground. These areas looked to have a shallower snowpack.

Number of slides
2
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Soft slab avalanche
R size
1
D size
1.5
Bed Surface
O - Old snow
Problem Type
Persistent Weak Layer
Slab Thickness
18.0 inches
Vertical Fall
50ft
Slab Width
20.00ft
Slab Thickness units
inches
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Multiple Avalanches
Advisory Year

Large natural avalanche south of Cooke

Republic Creek
Cooke City
Code
HS-N-R2-D2.5-O
Latitude
44.98550
Longitude
-109.94100
Notes

Skied south of Cooke today and noticed a large natural avalanche just north of the South Siren. N-R2-D2.5-O. It wasn't fresh and likely ran during the last storm cycle. 

We dug on an east aspect at 9800', ECTX, HS150. No cr, co.

 

Number of slides
1
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Hard slab avalanche
Trigger
Natural trigger
R size
2
D size
2.5
Bed Surface
O - Old snow
Slab Thickness units
centimeters
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Single Avalanche
Advisory Year

Large natural avalanche south of Cooke

Date
Activity
Skiing

Skied south of Cooke today and noticed a large natural avalanche just north of the South Siren. N-R2-D2.5-O. It wasn't fresh and likely ran during the last storm cycle. 

We dug on an east aspect at 9800', ECTX, HS150. No cr, co.

 

Region
Cooke City
Location (from list)
Republic Creek
Observer Name
Nina Marienthal